What America Can Learn From The Revolt In Europe

By Robert Reich, cross-posted from his website

Who’s an economy for? Voters in France and Greece have made it clear it’s not for the bond traders.

Referring to his own electoral woes, Prime Minister David Cameron wrote Monday in an article in the conservative Daily Telegraph: “When people think about the economy they don’t see it through the dry numbers of the deficit figures, trade balances or inflation forecasts — but instead the things that make the difference between a life that’s worth living and a daily grind that drags them down.”

Cameron, whose own economic policies have worsened the daily grind dragging down most Brits, may be sobered by what happened over the weekend in France and Greece – as well as his own poll numbers. Britain’s conservatives have been taking a beating.

In truth, the choice isn’t simply between budget-cutting austerity, on the one hand, and growth and jobs on the other. 

It’s really a question of timing. And it’s the same issue on this side of the pond. If government slices spending too early, when unemployment is high and growth is slowing, it makes the debt situation far worse.

That’s because public spending is a critical component of total demand. If demand is already lagging, spending cuts further slow the economy – and thereby increase the size of the public debt relative to the size of the overall economy.

You end up with the worst of both worlds – a growing ratio of debt to the gross domestic product, coupled with high unemployment and a public that’s furious about losing safety nets when they’re most needed.

The proper sequence is for government to keep spending until jobs and growth are restored, and only then to take out the budget axe.

If Hollande’s new government pushes Angela Merkel in this direction, he’ll end up saving the euro and, ironically, the jobs of many conservative leaders throughout Europe – including Merkel and Cameron.

But he also has an important audience in the United States, where Republicans are trying to sell a toxic blend of trickle-down supply-side economics (tax cuts on the rich and on corporations) and austerity for everyone else (government spending cuts). That’s exactly the opposite of what’s needed now.  

Yes, America has a long-term budget deficit that’s scary. So does Europe. But the first priority in America and in Europe must be growth and jobs. That means rejecting austerity economics for now, while at the same time demanding that corporations and the rich pay their fair share of the cost of keeping everyone else afloat.

President Obama and the Democrats should set a clear trigger — say, 6 percent unemployment and two quarters of growth greater than 3 percent — before whacking the budget deficit.

And they should set that trigger now, during the election, so the public can give them a mandate on Election Day to delay the “sequestration” cuts (now scheduled to begin next year) until that trigger is met.

The Relentless Austerity Fetish

Lemmings

By Richard (RJ) Eskow, cross-posted from Campaign for America's Future

Europe's in crisis. Unemployment is at a fifteen-year high after climbing for ten straight months, thanks to the austerity measures imposed on it by conservative leaders in France, Germany, and the international financial community.

But if you think things are bad over there, imagine what they'll be like if Republican budget measures are imposed here. The GOP budget makes European austerity look like summer camp.

Ever wonder why lemmings jump off cliffs?

While England Slept

Great Britain blazed the trail for Europe with a series of steep cuts to government spending - and it soon led the continent in economic misfortune. Unemployment skyrocketed, consumer confidence plummeted, and growth stagnated.

That's what austerity economics does to struggling economies. When you ask already-beleaguered middle class and lower-income people to bear the burden for the mistakes that made other rich the results are predictable: real income falls, demand for goods and services drops, and the entire economy drops back into a death spiral.

You'd think that Europe and the world would have learned from Britain's mistakes, but they haven't. In fact, even Britain hasn't learned from its mistakes. As the New York Times reports, the UK is doubling down on the madness.

In its latest round of budget announcements the government announced that it's continuing to push for additional spending reductions but wants to cut taxes for the wealthiest citizens, including those who got rich from the bank speculation that broke the economy! As critics have correctly observed, the UK government is paying for this rich person's tax cut through a 'stealth tax' on low-income retirees.

Britain's misplaced emphasis on reducing government deficits is even backfiring where deficits are concerned. From the Times: "The Office for National Statistics said Wednesday that Britain's budget deficit almost doubled in February, to £15.2 billion, far exceeding economists' expectations of about £8 billion. "


Kamikaze Europe

Now the rest of Europe is following Great Britain's lead. Unemployment is officially 10.8 percent and expected to reach 11 percent soon. Seventeen million people are out of work.

Austerity mania spread through Europe like a plague. Unemployment's now at 23.6 percent in Spain and 21 percent in Greece. How is a country expected to lower its deficits when a quarter of its working population isn't paying taxes and doesn't have disposable income? Apparently the financial geniuses running things there didn't think about that.

Ireland was once touted as austerity's success story. They're not bragging on Old Eire much now that it's officially back in a recession. Spain's problems disprove the theory that government debt is the source of all economic woes since, as Paul Krugman notes, Spain has been a much more thrifty government spender than Germany. Further austerity measures there are going to be disastrous.

Then there's Greece. According to reports, there are no working traffic lights left in the city of Athens. People have taken to bartering for goods and services in a world where many people have little or no sources of currency income while the streets swarm with formerly middle-class Greeks who are now being described as 'the new poor.'

In fact, there are encampments of the working poor throughout Europe. Even the leading European economy, Germany, is losing ground because of Chancellor Merkel's obsession with austerity measures - while France, the other austerity leader, is also struggling.

What do they plan to do, now that they have the benefit of experience? More austerity, according to reports. Merkel even thinks that's the road to her own re-election.

The Home Front

Which gets us to the United States. The Republicans in Congress have just passed a budget that makes Europe's austerity measures seem positively genteel. Rep. Paul Ryan, the Pied Piper of nihilist economics, said when it passed that we're in a "debt-driven crisis, and so we have an obligation -- not just a legal obligation but a moral obligation -- to do something about it."

That budget's "moral obligation" doesn't extend to our military budget, which the Republicans voted to massively expand - or to tax breaks for millionaires and billionaires, whose current historically low tax rates will plunge if their budget ever goes into effect. And, as we now know, the GOP budget would essentially shut down every other function of government that Americans have valued for the last century and a half. 62 percent would come from programs for lower-income people and Pell grants to help young people go to college.

And what a time for austerity: As Matt Stoller notes, one in seven Americans is being pursued by debt collectors. Student loan debt exceeded $1 trillion last year, even as young people face sky-high unemployment. 8.8 percent of student loans defaulted in their first two years of payment last year and more than one-fourth of student loan payments are now delinquent.

Robert Schiller, arguably the world's top economic expert on real estate, says that prices for suburban real estate aren't coming back in our lifetime. Consumer debt is soaring. US growth is expect to turn even more sluggish, which even has Ben Bernanke pushing for more government action.

But while the projected deficit reductions in the GOP budget are a hoax, the cuts to vital programs, including its hidden cuts to Medicare, aren't. As Mike Konczal notes, states like Florida are a preview of a Ryan-budget America. Konczal coauthored an article with Bryce Covert which showed that "Of the eleven states in which Republicans came into power in 2010 -(five) lost more than 2.5 percent of their workforce from December 2010 to December 2011."

Bargain Basement

The budget-cutting rhetoric of the right is too often echoed by Democrats, at a time when they (or someone) should be proposing a more common-sense and more humane approach to the economy. Talking about deficits today is the moral equivalent of lecturing firefighters about water conservation while the town is burning down.

We need to put out the fire first. We urgently need spending to create jobs, especially when the government can borrow money for virtually nothing. Or, to put it another way -

This is your country:



(employment, United States)
This is your country on austerity:



(Konczal, Covert)
And yet there are still those in the White House and Congress who dream of a "grand bargain" with the Republicans, like the one the President nearly finalized last year - a bargain that would send the nation's economy over a cliff.

Lemmings

People used to believe that lemmings committed mass suicide. Scientists now say that they're following migration patterns which sometimes lead them straight into the ocean. Either way, a lot of them drown because they followed the tail of the rodent in front of them.

The US seems determined to cling to Europe's ragged tail as it plunges into the icy waters below. The Republicans would drown our economy in a way that would make Europe's problems seem mild by comparison. (At least they still have working governments over there.) But few Democrats are willing to challenge the austerity fundamentalism that's gripped Washington. Instead they prefer to debate means to an austere end, rather than the end itself.

It's all insane. But this Ryan budget - now the official budget of Republicans in Congress, and warmly embraced by presumptive GOP candidate Mitt Romney - is the biggest sign of insanity yet.
Not that our national leaders are lemmings. Far from it. They're intelligent economic actors behaving in a way that ensures they'll receive future rewards. That means if we don't like the way this story ends, we'll have to change it ourselves.

No, politicians aren't the lemmings in this story. Until the time comes when we demand something different from our leaders in Washington ...... we are.

Will We, The People Have A Say On The Supercommittee's Austerity Plan?

By Dave Johnson, cross-posted from Campaign for America's Future

by DonkeyHotey

Congress' "supercommittee" of the 1% is preparing an austerity plan for the 99%. Will We, the People be allowed to vote on this plan, or, like Greece, will the elites just tell us how it is going to be? Our deficits were caused by tax cuts for the rich and huge increases in military spending. But instead of addressing these causes the elite supercommittee is said to be preparing to take money out of the economy by cutting the things We, the People do for each other. That's right, at the very time when 99% of us need more we will get less so that the 1% can enjoy record-low tax rates -- and it looks like We, the People will have no say in it.

Last week Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou proposed a referendum on the austerity plan that European governments are preparing for the country. "The markets" -- another name for the 1% -- went berserk in reaction. Pressure was applied, and now the Greek people will not be allowed to vote on their austerity plan after all, they will just be told. Richard Eskow writes about this elite veto power over democracy, in Vetoing Democracy: In Athens or Washington, Elites Still Call the Shots,

And what was most striking was the assumption the elite - the 1%, if you will - have veto power over the democratic process. In most of the commentary that flowed from the powerful and the press, a surprising number of world leader didn't even acknowledge that Greece had the right to its own democratic decision-making process.
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, whose nation will benefit from "bipartisan" U.S. actions to create a free trade agreement between the two countries, said that "The world has plunged into fears again because of the Greek prime minister's radical step to hold a referendum." Closer to home, French President Sarkozy said that "the Greek's gesture is irrational and, from their point of view, dangerous."
The first part of that statement is a slur against democracy. The second part is, of course, a threat.

Here we are a year after our first post-Citizens United election, in which corporations were allowed to use money to directly influence our elections (as compared to indirectly influencing elections by funding the conservative movement and their organizations, think tanks, media, operatives, propaganda machine, smear machine, etc.). Here we are with the results, a year with no jobs plan from the corporate-elected House majority and a year of filibusters of jobs plans by the corporate-elected Senate Republicans. Here we are with people in the streets, like in Greece, being met with police force, like in Egypt. Meanwhile our Congress pretends it can just ignore the will of We, the People. Mubarak tried that - didn't end so well for him.

So, will We, the People be allowed to have a say over this austerity plan, or will it be like Greece all over again, told by the 1% how it's gonna be?

Or, maybe, Egypt?

Vetoing Democracy: In Athens Or Washington, Elites Still Call The Shots

By Richard (RJ) Eskow, cross-posted from Campaign for America's Future

This week was a sharp reminder that the ancient ideal of democracy is just as threatened - and to some, just as threatening - as it's ever been. In government offices in Athens, G20 meeting rooms in Cannes, and "Super Committee" chambers in Washington, we learned that there are still places where the will of the people can be overruled by the whims of the powerful.

From the Parthenon to the Potomac, it was the same story: Elites still hold veto power over the democratic process, and they're not afraid to use it.

Democracy: 'Radical,' 'Irrational,' 'Dangerous'

Ironically, this week's ferment began in the country that's usually credited with creating democracy. In many ways the Greek economy couldn't be more different from our own. The government's fiscal problems there are due in large part to widespread corruption and massive tax evasion - not tax breaks, tax evasion - which are very different from our own problems. The government's finances dramatically worse than our own - almost like night and day - and a default could create the next major financial crisis.

A certain level of fear and concern was understandable when Greek President George Papandreou announced there would be a referendum on the new bailout plan imposed on his country. The global economy is still unstable, top-heavy, and still riddled with too-big-to-fail institutions. In a worst-case scenario, Greece could trigger another financial meltdown.

Yet the fear was rarely balanced with an understanding of what's really happening in Greece. There was no acknowledgement that the bailout's terms might be grossly unfair (they are), that they're likely to make a terrible situation even worse (they will), or that Greece is in chaos, misery, and despair. (It is.)

And what was most striking was the assumption the elite - the 1%, if you will - have veto power over the democratic process. In most of the commentary that flowed from the powerful and the press, a surprising number of world leader didn't even acknowledge that Greece had the right to its own democratic decision-making process.



South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, whose nation will benefit from "bipartisan" U.S. actions to create a free trade agreement between the two countries, said that "The world has plunged into fears again because of the Greek prime minister's radical step to hold a referendum." Closer to home, French President Sarkozy said that "the Greek's gesture is irrational and, from their point of view, dangerous."

The first part of that statement is a slur against democracy. The second part is, of course, a threat.

What's the Greek word for 'shafted'?

Few are asking who created the Greek debt problem, or who benefited. As in the United States, deficit-creating behavior primarily served the wealthy, the powerful, and the banks. Tax collections for corporations and the wealthy have been very low in Greece. And while tax evasion is commonly for everyone from taxi drivers to millionaires, it takes a lot of cheating cabbies to equal one rich tax dodger.

Bankers didn't give Greece these loans out of kindness, either. They saw an opportunity and they took it. That's why they're being asked to take "haircuts" and lose part of the loan repayment (a reasonable measure that hasn't been yet considered in the US mortgage crisis.)

Greeks are struggling with devastating levels of unemployment, a declining standard of living, and widespread social unrest. While the austerity measures imposed on it do include tax hikes and measures to reduce tax evasion, they will have an especially devastating impact on already hard-hit middle class Greeks. They're the ones who went to work, paid their taxes (wage earners were disproportionately taxed because of the evasion), and paid into their Social Security and health funds with the expectation these services would be available when they were needed.

It doesn't matter now. They won't get their say. Once again the elites were given veto power over democracy. A "bipartisan" revolt of politicians in both major parties made sure of that, and today George Papandreou is looking forward to joining the swelling ranks of Greece's unemployed.

The public's widespread dissatisfaction is understandable, and this stifling of democracy should raise even more fears for Greece's future stability than the referendum did. What will happen if the Greek people continued to be denied a place at the bargaining table as their fate is decided? Given that nation's troubled past, and its tormented present, there's always John F. Kennedy's quote to consider: Those who make peaceful evolution impossible make violent revolution inevitable.

Elites Only

But what does this have to do with us? We certainly don't face Greek-level problems. In fact, it serves the elite's narrative to suggest otherwise. Our currency is the dollar, which helps a great deal. We're a commanding world economy. We have the money and resources to fix our joblessness problem, if we only had the will, and we're not part of a larger group like the European Community.
Bet we are part of the G20, which this week reaffirmed its obsession on austerity measures even as Europe sinks under the weight of those already imposed. Washington's Powers That Be are still obsessing about austerity, too.

Here, as in Europe, public opinion is expected to take a back seat to the elites. Yet another poll has been released which shows that a majority of people in all age groups oppose cutting Social Security to fix the deficit. Past polls have shown that strong majorities of Republicans, independents, and even Tea Party member oppose such measures.

Yet despite the strong public objections, and despite the fact that there's overwhelming evidence these cuts are unnecessary and counterproductive, an elected "Super Committee" is likely to recommend them anyway. The usual Congressional rules have been waived in order to force their proposal to a simple up-or-down vote, with no possibility of filibuster and no chance to offer amendments. And US politicians will be under as much pressure to vote for this austerity measure as their Greek counterparts were.

Vetoing Democracy

The same week that democracy was under siege in Greece, the "Super Committee" heard from a blue-ribbon panel representing the austerity elite: a Republican hater of Social Security recipients; a Democratic member of Morgan Stanley's Board of Directors; a Republican ex-Senator; and an economist aligned with the Democratic establishment advocates for entitlement cuts. The activities of all four been funded by Republican anti-government-spending billionaire Pete Peterson.

In words that echoed those of the South Korean and French Presidents, the quartet told the unelected committee that if it fails to offer austerity measures which the public rejects, "We haven't got a prayer and neither have you." The elites have spoken: The public is to be ignored. Democracy's been vetoed.

Here's what they didn't teach us in civics class: Democracy has always been controversial. "Democracy... is a charming form of government," said Plato, "full of variety and disorder; and dispensing a sort of equality to equals and unequals alike." He could sound like a Tea Partier at times. "Dictatorship naturally arises out of democracy," he said, " and the most aggravated form of tyranny and slavery out of the most extreme liberty."

Plato's aversion to democracy is shared by a lot of powerful people these days. But politicians, especially those whose party derives its name from the democratic principle, would be better off remembering another Greek philosopher, Aristotle, who said that "The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law."

Representatives from groups that represent Social Security and Medicare recipients, the disabled, and the elderly requested an opportunity to address the Super Committee. They wanted to present their case for preserving these programs, a position that's supported by compelling evidence and supported by majorities in all political parties and of all generations.

Their requests were ignored.

Greece's Choice -- And Ours: Democracy Or Finance?

By Robert Reich, cross-posted from his website

Which do you trust more: democracy or financial markets?

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou decided in favor of democracy yesterday when he announced a national referendum on the draconian budget cuts Europe and the IMF are demanding from Greece in return for bailing it out.

(Or, more accurately, the cuts Europe and the IMF are demanding for bailing out big European banks that have lent Greece lots of money and stand to lose big if Greece defaults on those loans – not to mention Wall Street banks that will also suffer because of their intertwined financial connections with European banks.)

If Greeks accept the bailout terms, unemployment will rise even further in Greece, public services will be cut more than they have already, the Greek economy will contract, and the standard of living of most Greeks will deteriorate further.

If Greeks reject the terms and the nation defaults, it will face far higher borrowing costs in the future. This may reduce the standard of living of most Greeks, too. But it doesn’t have to. Without the austerity measures the rest of Europe and the IMF are demanding, the Greek economy has a better chance of growing and more Greeks are likely to find jobs.

Shouldn’t Greeks be able to make this decision for themselves?


Of course, if Greek defaults on its loans, global investors (fearing that a default in Greece sets a dangerous precedent) may yank their money out of Italy. This would almost certainly bust several big European banks – and generate panic on Wall Street. That’s why Tim Geithner has been pressing Europe to bail out Greece.

We’ve been here before, remember? Here in the United States, at the end of 2008 and start of 2009. Wall Street had made lots of bad loans, and the question we faced then was whether to bail out the Street.

The difference is, we didn’t hold a referendum. Instead, the Bush administration told Congress the nation risked “economic Armageddon” if it didn’t immediately authorize a giant bailout of the Street – with no strings attached. Of course Congress hastily agreed. Hank Paulson, Ben Bernanke, and Tim Geithner (as head of the New York Fed) then doled out the money. And the Obama administration (with Geithner installed as Treasury Secretary) gave out more.

So instead of allowing the Street to live with the consequences of its negligence, we bailed it out – and allowed the Main Streets of America to suffer the consequences.

If Americans had been consulted about the bank bailout, I doubt it would have happened the way it did. At the very least, strict conditions would have been placed on the banks in return for the money. The banks would have had to eat the losses of the predatory mortgages they sold, and help homeowners reduce those mortgages. They’d be required to improve the capitalization of small banks in communities across the country. They’d be forced to accept stringent new regulations, including resurrection of Glass-Steagall.
But Americans weren’t really consulted. It was an inside job.

As a result, Wall Street has prospered but the rest of the nation hasn’t. One out of four homeowners is underwater, owing more on their homes than the homes are worth.

And with the worst economy since the Great Depression, we’re now embarking on fiscal austerity. Either Congress’s super-committee comes up with $1.2 trillion of federal budget cuts that Congress agrees to – going into effect a little over thirteen months from now – or $1.5 trillion of cuts are made across the board. Meanwhile, states and cities have been slashing public services for the past three years.

So which is it? Rule by democracy or by financial markets? Based on what’s happened in America, I’d choose the former.

Robert Reich, Chancellor's Professor of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley, writes a blog at www.robertreich.org.   His most recent book is Aftershock.